So, a recent opinion poll shows that Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu would beat Kiambu Governor William Kabogo hands down if a gubernatorial election was held in the county today?
While the findings by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) remain debatable, a simple conclusion at least for now, is that the survey could have only been carried out in Kabete, a Waititu’s stronghold.
Otherwise, the assumption that Waititu would beat Kabogo in Kiambu gubernatorial politics is farfetched if not foolhardy.
First, Waititu is yet to convince Kiambu voters he can beat Kabogo.
The only person who seem to believe that Waititu can win Kiambu Governor’s seat is only Waititu himself and perhaps this pollster because many Kiambu voters seem to be of the contrary opinion.
This is informed by the fact that though Waititu is physically in Kiambu, his heart seems to be still in Nairobi and is yet to come out strongly to challenge Kabogo’s dominance in the county politics.
Also, Waititu’s academic papers issue has heavily dented his political image in Kiambu. This really worked against him and not many Kiambu voters believe he can steer the county in the right direction. The matter also portrayed him as a ‘shortcut politician’ who can do anything to achieve his desires.
Waititu’s ‘thuggish’ kind of politics seem to have worked well for him in Nairobi but Kiambu voters are slow to embrace it. They need assurance that Waititu won’t lead the local youths in throwing stones among other uncivilised things he is associated with. So far he has not been able to shed off this image and remains a hard sell especially among the elderly.
Finally, Waititu’s rival, William Kabogo is known to be a go-getter. Kabogo dislodged George Thuo from office after three years of being Juja MP. He won in the by-election that followed. Before then, in 2002, he had gone against the NARC wave to win the same seat through a little-known party, Sisi Kwa Sisi. It, therefore, goes without saying that Waititu has no time to celebrate a ‘poorly’ conducted opinion poll. The earlier he wakes up and lives up to reality, the better.